In today’s interconnected and rapidly evolving global economy, understanding the potential challenges and opportunities is crucial for policymakers and business leaders. At GovCampus, we recognize the importance of staying informed about economic trends and forecasts. The World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the global economy, highlighting areas of growth and concern.
Released in May 2024, the Chief Economists’ Outlook launches amid a climate of cautious optimism about the global economy. While uncertainty persists, signs of improvement are evident. The latest survey reveals a sharp decline in the proportion of chief economists expecting global conditions to weaken this year, dropping from 56% in January to 17%.
Geopolitics and domestic politics are anticipated to remain major sources of global economic turbulence in 2024. However, most chief economists do not view rapid technological advances, including AI, as immediate sources of economic instability. Regionally, there is a more optimistic growth outlook, particularly in the US and parts of Asia, although Europe’s outlook remains largely unchanged. Inflation expectations are converging towards a moderate outlook across most regions.
Businesses and policymakers face growing challenges, including heightened complexity and interplay of political and economic dynamics. Key factors expected to drive corporate decision-making include the overall health of the global economy, monetary policy, financial markets, and labor market conditions.
Looking at the longer-term prospects, most respondents expect global growth to return to 4% within the next five years. Technological transformation, AI, and the green and energy transition are recognized as key growth drivers, especially in high-income economies.
International Monetary Fund